TURF analysis: simplify your portfolio without losing buyers

TURF analysis is a very useful tool to rationalise your product portfolio. If you have been operating in the market for some time, you may have been creating new products to complete the initial range and reach more buyers. Maybe it’s new flavours, varieties with specific benefits or different pack sizes. But now that some time has passed, you wonder if everything you have been launching is still necessary. What if you reduced the number of SKUs, could you reduce your production costs without losing buyers? Then, which products should you keep and which ones could you withdraw from the market? If the answers to these questions interest you, TURF analysis is perfect for you.

What is TURF analysis?

TURF (Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency) analysis is a statistical technique used to determine the optimal combination of products or services that maximises the total reach among consumers.

Let’s look at some aspects of this definition in a little more detail:

• Total reach or total buyer base. TURF analysis puts the preservation of the maximum buyer base at the centre. Today we know that brands grow faster when they manage to increase their customer base. Reducing the buyer base is not a good idea. That is why any change in the portfolio must be made with the certainty that no significant number of buyers will be lost.
• Unduplicated. It is very likely that the buyers of reference A will also sometimes buy reference B or C. If reference A is removed, it is most likely that buyers will concentrate their purchases on the remaining references of the brand, in this case B or C. The loss for the brand would only be those buyers who see reference A as something that cannot be renounced and would prefer to choose another brand that does have this attribute.
• Frequency. Earlier we said that the most important objective of the TURF analysis is to maintain the buyer base. However, sometimes it will also be interesting to pay attention to the frequency of purchase. If two references attract a similar number of new buyers and do not show significant differences in profitability, frequency can help us decide which one to choose.

¿Cuándo hacer un análisis TURF?

When to do a TURF analysis?

TURF analysis is ideal when you want to maximise the scope of a combination of elements, but cannot offer all available options. It is especially used when there are limitations of space, budget or production capacity.

• Product portfolio optimisation. This is the most common case, when a brand has to reduce its product line in order to optimise its production costs. In this case, TURF analysis helps you to identify which products to keep in order not to lose a relevant amount of your current customers.
• Assortment planning in retail. This application is especially useful for retailers. Retail outlets have limited shelf space and it is important to make the most of it. Let’s imagine that the distributor has to reduce the space allocated to the category and believes that he/she will have to keep only five products out of the 15 that are currently on the shelf. TURF analysis will allow you to maximise the number of potential buyers with that limited space.
• Launching new products or flavours. Sometimes TURF analysis is done within innovation processes to choose the combination of references that allows you to reach the maximum number of buyers. Let’s imagine that you want to launch a new range of ice cream and you are considering launching three flavours out of a possible ten. In this case, the TURF analysis allows you to identify the three flavours that will attract the maximum number of buyers. The only point to bear in mind here is that consumers are not yet familiar with the new range, and have not yet tasted the ice cream, so their choice will be based on a general flavour preference.

TURF analysis vs. conjoint and MaxDiff analysis

TURF analysis is sometimes compared to conjoint and MaxDfiff analysis. The truth is that they are usually used for somewhat different situations:

• TURF analysis allows maximising the buyer base with a limited supply of products. And it is used to rationalise portfolios, optimise linear or prioritise launches based on a specific attribute.
• MaxDiff analysis provides a better understanding of the importance consumers place on different product attributes, such as volume, packaging type or taste.
• Conjoint analysis is used to identify combinations of attribute levels preferred by consumers. That is, in a mobile phone, would they prefer an option with a larger screen size, longer battery life and also a higher price, or would they prefer to sacrifice an attribute to reduce the price?

MaxDiff and Conjoint analysis are typical for innovation processes, while TURF analysis is more suitable for times when you want to optimise your portfolio or assortment.

How to do a TURF analysis?

Doing a TURF analysis is simple. Let’s look at a practical case. Imagine a brand in the flavoured water category that currently has a range of seven flavours: pineapple, apple, lemon, orange, orange, coconut, strawberry and lime. Imagine that the brand wants to reduce its production costs by limiting its range to just five flavours.

Step 1: conduct a survey

The first step in any TURF analysis is to conduct a consumer survey. If it is a large, established brand with a stable buyer base, you can ask about the actual purchase of the brand in recent months. If not, it is better to ask about future purchase consideration. Calculate a minimum of 500 consumers to have an acceptable margin of error and not make decisions with unreliable data. The type of question to use in a TURF analysis would be multiple choice. For example:

Which of the following flavours of water would you consider buying (tick all flavours you would consider).

• Pineapple
• Apple
• Lemon
• Orange
• Coconut
• Strawberry
• Lime

Step 2. Prepare the file for TURF analysis

Once the fieldwork is finished, download the data file in Excel. The flavours will be column headers. Convert the response to a ‘1’ if the consumer mentioned the flavour or a ‘0’ if they did not. Add a totals row at the end of the table to sum up the mentions of each flavour.

Step 3. Create the flavour combinations

Identify all 5 flavour combinations from a total of 7 possible flavours. For example, pineapple, apple, lemon, orange and coconut.

Step 4. Calculate the number of buyers for each combination.

Place each combination in the column headers. Use the filters to mark with a ‘1’ all consumers who have marked at least one of the flavours that are part of the combination. To do this, you can use the following formula:

=IF(OR(B2=1, C2=1, D2=1, E2=1, F2=1), 1, 0)

Assuming that columns B, C, D, E and F are the flavours that are part of the combination. Copy the whole row down and calculate the totals. Do this for all 21 combinations.

Step 5. Identify the winning combination

With the data in Excel you can create a table with the number of consumers who would consider buying any of the flavours in the combination:

• Pineapple, Apple, Lemon, Orange or Coconut – 382 consumers
• Pineapple, Apple, Lemon, Orange or Strawberry – 343 consumers
• Pineapple, Apple, Lemon, Coconut or Lime – 312 consumers
• And so on…

Step 6. Analyse the marginal contribution of each flavour

Once you have the data from your TURF analysis, you may wonder what would happen if you only wanted to keep four flavours instead of five. Maybe with a first flavour you can reach 60% of the buyers and when you add new flavours the total reach figure goes up, but in a decreasing way, until almost no new buyers are brought in even if you add new flavours. With a waterfall chart, you can intuitively see the contribution to the buyer base of each additional flavour. This will allow you to assess whether or not the contribution of the fifth flavour justifies the increase in production costs.

TURF analysis with We are testers

The We are testers research platform allows you to easily create the survey you need to conduct a TURF analysis. With the panel of 130,000 consumers, you can define the sample to suit your needs, whether it’s accessing brand shoppers, category shoppers or defining your target audience. And to help you with everything, We are testers’ team of research experts will be there for you every step of the way. Trust them to advise you or let them take care of defining the sample, the questionnaire or even the analysis. With We are testers you decide how you want to conduct your studies.

Contact our experts to find out more about TURF analysis.